Xinhecheng (002001): VA, VE, and methionine have increased in succession
Event: According to information from Boya and News, feed Baba and other websites, the VE offer increased to 60 yuan / kg on May 14.
The VE architecture is optimized, and prices are expected to continue to rise.
New entrants in the cutting-edge VE industry have made breakthroughs, especially the intermediates trimethylhydronaphthalene and isophytol produced by Nante Technology using a new process. The cost has been reduced and the market price has been impacted.
After the explosion of BASF, VE dropped to a maximum of 130 yuan / kg to the bottom range of 40 yuan / kg.
In the short term, the supply of VE has dropped significantly due to the problems of wastewater treatment equipment of overseas companies.
Recently, the price of VE rebounded at the bottom, and the market price rebounded to 45-50 yuan / kg.
On May 14, the company raised its offer price to 60 yuan / kg.
In the long run, Nytech ‘s isophytol, the main raw material of farnesene, is jointly supplied by Amyris, and DSM announced the acquisition of Amyris’s Brazilian plant and Farnesene intellectual property at the end of 2017. At the same time, in early 2019, Guanfu shares announced that they could have stunts and DSM in the VE fieldWhen the cooperation is reached, a joint venture company will be established with Vitamin E as a secondary intermediate business.
The transaction is planned to be completed in the second or third quarter of 2019, and the two parties will retrofit and upgrade existing equipment.
After the cooperation between the two parties in the future, the VE pattern will be optimized to support the continued rise in VE prices.
The VA structure is stable and the price fluctuates at a high level.
VA produces only 6 companies worldwide, and the layout is stable.
Since the BASF citral explosion accident was repaired, the product price has dropped from a maximum of 1,600 yuan / kg to an initial 400 yuan / kg.
Affected by swine fever in 19 years, the price dropped to 285 yuan / kg.
Since the inventory of VA has been low since the explosion of BASF, the oligopoly’s ability to control prices has changed, and vitamin products have generally increased in the recent internal safety and environmental inspections. At the same time, due to the problem of wastewater treatment equipment of overseas companies, the price of VA has risen to 380400 yuan / kg.
According to feed Baba information, individual manufacturers offer 395 yuan / kg.
VA is expected to fluctuate at a high level for a long time.
The Ministry of Commerce announced a methionine anti-dumping investigation, and methionine prices rebounded.
On April 10, the Ministry of Commerce issued an announcement and decided to conduct an anti-dumping investigation on imported methionine (methionine) originating in Singapore, Malaysia and Japan.
Stimulated by news of the anti-dumping investigation, the domestic methionine price on April 10 was 17.
5 yuan / kg rebounded to 18-20 yuan / kg and stopped quoting.
Domestic methionine is 70% dependent on imports, and Evonik accounts for about half of the total. Due to the impact of anti-dumping investigations, Evonik’s domestic imports have decreased, and the domestic market supply has contracted.
At the same time on April 17, Evonik decided to increase the price of methionine globally, an increase of 7%.
Methionine prices rebounded at the bottom.
Investment suggestion: Maintain the “overweight” rating and temporarily maintain the profit forecast. It is expected that net profit will be returned to the mother in 2019-21.
1 million yuan, EPS 1.
68 yuan, PE 18X, 15X, 12X.
The company’s VA (500,000 IU) production capacity is 1 additive, and each time the price increases by 100 yuan / kg, the net profit increases by about 7.
The current VE (oil) production capacity of 2 intakes, corresponding to 4 powders, the price increases by 10 yuan / ton, increasing the net profit of about 300 million yuan.
The company newly built 2 VE (oil) capacity in Shandong 都市夜网 to further improve production process efficiency and reduce costs, and plans to replace existing capacity in the future.
At present, the methionine production capacity is 5 and the other 10 tons are under construction, and a 30-ton production capacity will be formed in the long run.
Calculated based on the current 5 budget, each increase of 1 yuan / kg in price increases the net profit by 0.400000000.
Risk reminder: VA and VE prices have fallen sharply