Northern Huachuang (002371): Leading domestic semiconductor equipment enables domestic substitution
The product system is rich. The leading semiconductor equipment companies have four product systems to meet market demand in various aspects.
In 2017, Northern Huachuang integrated internal business and assets to form a “4 + 1” business management model, that is, the company’s headquarters and its subordinates are respectively four wholly-owned companies in semiconductor equipment, vacuum equipment, new energy lithium battery equipment 杭州夜网论坛 and high-precision electronic components.Subsidiary.
Among them, the two major segments of electronic process equipment and electronic components are the company’s main 杭州夜网 source of revenue, and the revenue brought by it in 2018 were 25.
2.1 billion and 7.
8.8 billion yuan.
In terms of semiconductor equipment, the company covers 7 major categories of products such as etching machines, PVD, CVD, oxidation furnaces, diffusion furnaces, cleaning machines and MFCs. According to the company announcement, the company’s 12-inch 90-28nm process equipment has achieved mass production. Inch 14nm process equipment has been verified at the client.
According to the company’s announcement, the entire 12-inch process line is roughly divided into ten categories of equipment. Northern Huachuang involves five major categories: etching, PVD, CVD, cleaning, and furnace tubes. The proportion of these types of equipment accounts for about half of the fab investment.above 50.
Benefiting from the transfer of the semiconductor industry, large capital expenditures have brought about broad equipment space. In recent years, the domestic semiconductor market has entered a period of rapid development. IDM and wafer fab production capacity continue to drive the strong demand for semiconductor equipment.
According to SEMI, China’s wafer fab production capacity is expected to increase from 2.3 million wafers / month in 2015 to 4 million wafers / month in 2020, with an annual compound yield of 12%.
The state has promulgated policies and financial support, and at the same time joint enterprises and universities and research institutes have jointly tackled various types of semiconductor equipment, coupled with market demand, China’s semiconductor equipment has achieved strong independent controllable power.
We believe that under the trend of import substitution, domestic wafer fab capacity expansion and capital expenditure provide opportunities for the development of semiconductor equipment.
Advanced process and emerging demand bring new opportunities for the development of domestic equipment. The development of 7 / 14nm advanced process has brought new requirements and technical difficulties to semiconductor equipment. At the same time, emerging needs such as 5G and the Internet of Things will also drive a new round of growth in the semiconductor industry.
5G equipment will be commercialized in 2019 and large-scale by 2020, keeping pace with the world process.
These will further drive the growth of the semiconductor equipment market size. According to SEMI, the Chinese semiconductor equipment market size will reach 170 in 2020.
US $ 600 million, a 36% increase over the ten-year period.
Investment advice we predict company 2019?
Income in 2021 will be 43.
30,000 yuan, 58.
1.3 billion, 71.
37 trillion, the annual growth rate is 29.
78%; net profit attributable to mothers is 3.
07 billion, 4.
8.7 billion, 7.
2.6 billion, the previous growth rate was 31.
06%; corresponding EPS are 0.
67 yuan, 1.
06 yuan, 1.
58 yuan, the corresponding PE is 95.
67 times, 60.
39 times, 40.
From the perspective of estimation, we use the PS estimation method.
5 times, domestic A-share semiconductor equipment companies (fine test electronics, Changchuan Technology, Zhichun Technology, Jingsheng Mechanical and Electrical) relative to the average PS of 5 in 2020.
82 times, the company as a leading semiconductor equipment company, we give 6 times PS in 2020, corresponding to the total market ranking of 348 in 2020.
80,000 yuan, corresponding to a sustainable 76.
2 yuan, covering for the first time, give “buy” rating.
Risks indicate that market competition will intensify risks. Technology updates are expected to bring the company’s new product breakthrough expectations, semiconductor industry development expectations, macroeconomic development expectations, and import substitution expectations.